- Used Book in Good Condition.
Book Description
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they
always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its ins into human
behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed
by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and
revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and
conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best
known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has
since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their nents want, how much they want
it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean
disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which
corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of
them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can
provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations
compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether
you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of
their nents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to
your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius,
and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and
manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
Amazon Exclusive: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on The Predictioneer's Game
Knowing what will happen around the world can be awfully useful. Forewarned, after all, is forearmed, whether the
questions of the day are about business, national security, or our day-to-day lives. The Predictioneer’s Game provides a
reliable way to anticipate the future, one you can experiment by using the online version of the game’s program on my
website. Suppose, for instance, you want to work out likely future developments in Iran. You can build a data set and
test it just as I have done.
We all know that Iran’s Ayatollahs faced a pretty stiff challenge following that country’s June presidential election.
As I predicted in February 2009. the Qum clerics, sometimes called the Quietists, are quiet no more and Iran’s Supreme
Leader is facing the first real political challenge since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Iran is in for more challenging times
in the months to come. You might wonder, what is likely to happen to relations between Iran’s and Iraq’s Shia-dominated
governments now that the U.S. is withdrawing most of its forces from Iraq? How will the evolving relations between Iran
and Iraq shape the interests of the United States in the region? These are some of the questions I try to answer in The
Predictioneer’s Game.
I conclude that if the U.S. fully withdraws, then Iran and Iraq will form a strategic partnership and Iran might even
intervene militarily on behalf of Iraq’s Shia government to put down a rising political threat from the pro-Baathist,
anti-American, Sunni Vice President of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi. Hashimi’s power is predicted to increase markedly while
Prime Minister Maliki’s declines if President Obama decides not to maintain 50,000 American troops in Iraq. If, however,
he chooses to keep 50,000 or more troops in Iraq after August 2010, then Iran and Iraq will not forge a strategic
alliance, Hashimi’s growing power will be contained, and Maliki will remain in charge. And in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei’s
power will continue to decline while the , the moneyed interests and the Qum clerics will become the back of
a more moderate, more pragmatic Iranian regime.
Predicting the future--whether you are concerned about Iran or about how best to settle a family crisis--is not all
that mysterious. If people do what they think is best for themselves--and who doesn’t--then, with game theory’s help, we
can anticipate what they will do. Working out other people’s incentives means also working out how altering their costs
or benefits can be used to change their behavior and that, after all, is the essence of predictioneering.--Bruce Bueno
de Mesquita